Carl has posted his predictions and after a quick IM chat, I’ve decided to place a bet: I’m posting my predictions below. Whoever is closer is the winner; the loser has to donate an additional $25 to Governor Dean via the winner’s Dean All Stars account.
Others are welcome to join; post your predictions in the comments. Karl and I have our own bet, but you’re more than welcome to join in the fun.
The rules: Winner will be determined by the closest to Governor Dean’s final Q2 haul; in the event that both Karl and I go over, then we’ll look to Kerry’s haul. Then Edwards, Gephardt, Lieberman.
My predictions follow. I don’t have Governor Dean winning the quarter; I think Kerry will take that honor. But I do think that the story will be similar to what Karl notes: that the only “breakout” candidate will be Governor Dean. Kerry will be steady, but the others will have lost ground. A gulf will be obvious between the top tier candidates (Kerry, Dean) and the rest…
| Sen. Kerry | $7.5m |
| Governor Dean | $7.1m |
| Sen. Edwards | $5.5m |
| Sen. Lieberman | $5.2m |
| Rep. Gephardt | $5.0m |
| Sen. Graham | $4.0m |
| Rep. Kucinich | $400k |
| Ambassador Moseley-Braun | $300k |
| Rev. Sharpton | $300k |
If I’m close, the Democrats collectively will have raised nearly $35m in this quarter. Makes Bush’s “shock and awe” numbers look a little more manageable…
I look forward to collecting your money, Karl! :)
Rumor has it that some of the wicans from meetup.com have placed a spell on this wager making it impossible for you to win Rick. Happy trails and if you need a link for that $25 donation please let me know.
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