Kos has the link to the latest Newsweek poll (from 12/18-19, numbers in parentheses are from 12/11-12):
Dean 26 (24)
Don’t Know 20 (14)
Clark 15 (12)
Lieberman 7 (12)
Sharpton 7 (5)
Kerry 6 (5)
Gephardt 5 (10)
Edwards 5 (5)
Braun 1 (3)
Kucinich 1 (2)
Others are reporting that Clark may be emerging as the anti-Dean. Clark certainly isn’t pulling punches, pointing out that Dean can’t win.
Dean’s currently slightly ahead in South Carolina; if he takes Iowa and New Hampshire will his bounce be too much for Clark to overcome? If Clark can’t win in South Carolina, will he have a chance to win anywhere else?
On the surface, Gen. Clark did seem to be the perfect anti-Dean foil back when he entered the race in the fall. Had he tacked to the center, and played the resolute, reliable DLC southern democrat, he might have, by now, been the clear anti-Dean choice. Instead, he's seemed directionless and, frankly, a bit flaky. At times, he's seemed to be trying to out-Dean Dean!?! Were I to be generous, I would attribute this to his novice as a candidate; regardless, his standing has dropped a ton in my eyes.
ReplyDeleteBut who is left to coalesce as the anyone-but-Dean choice? Kerry? [Scoff] He's flip-flopped on the Iraq war so much its painful to hear him speak about it. Gephardt? Possible...but he just lacks the vigor, the personal energy, to beat Dean (much less Bush). Leiberman? I like the guy, but think he's just too right to win in the Democratic primary. Edwards? Might have had a chance, if he hadn't also flipped on the war...
I don't think the primaries are over by a long shot, even if Dean wins Iowa and NH. But, at this stage, it's tough to figure out which candidate will be able to knock off all the rest and oppose him, before it's too late.
It'll be an interesting two months.
Clark will do well in South Carolina, as will Edwards, but SC is less of a test this year than it has been in the past because the season has telescoped. Dean will bounce back with the next round, and might well sweep the rest.
ReplyDeleteI love the fact that Kerry is even with Sharpton.
ReplyDeleteSo the question becomes when does Kerry drop out?
A win in S. Carolina for a Dem is like a win for a Republican in Cambridge MA.
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